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Pada kondisi inilah, dalam rangka untuk menyusun kembali strategi investasi kedepannya, seorang investor dituntut untuk mampu memilah- milah informasi yang beredar, untuk membedakan mana informasi yang valid berdasarkan fakta dan data, dan mana informasi yang hanya bersifat opini atau rumor, yang sejatinya tidak berpengaruh apapun pergerakan IHSG maupun saham- saham tertentu (terkait hal ini, anda bisa baca lagi tips- tipsnya disini). Kabar baiknya, berhubung posisi IHSG saat ini masih cukup tinggi, maka sama sekali masih belum terlambat jika kita hendak cuci gudang, jika memang itu yang harus dilakukan. Lalu apa saja data dan fakta yang harus kita perhatikan? Well then, here we go: Pertama, dan ini adalah poin yang paling mudahuntuk dilihat, IHSG pada posisi 5,2. Amerika Serikat (6. Inggris (8. 8%), China (minus 9. ![]() ![]() Jepang (minus 8. 7%). Termasuk jika dibandingkan dengan beberapa negara tetangga, maka kenaikan IHSG juga tetap tergolong tinggi dibanding Malaysia (minus 3. Singapura (minus 2. Australia (1. 9%), dan hanya kalah dibanding Thailand (1. JKT48 (dibaca . Forty-eight. Dibentuk pada tahun 2011, JKT48 adalah idol group bentukan 48 group ( AKS Co., Ltd/Kabushiki. Related For 10 desain kalender 2017 Indonesia lengkap dengan hari libur Takvim 2017 November 5th 2016 . Do you need Calendar. Minggu lalu di artikel berjudul Dengan mempertimbangkan fakta bahwa pasar modal di seluruh dunia sebenarnya masih lesu di tahun 2. Indeks Straits Times Singapura malah sudah minus selama dua tahun berturut- turut) maka kenaikan IHSG terbilang terlalu cepat. Karena fakta lainnya adalah, kinerja para emiten besar di BEI pada tahun ini masih belum sepenuhnya pulih dibanding tahun 2. I mean, jika ASII dkk kembali membukukan kenaikan laba yang signifikan pada tahun ini, maka kenaikan 1. IHSG memiliki dasar fundamental yang kuat dan bisa berlanjut, sama seperti tahun 2. IHSG naik kenceng pasca market crash 2. Tapi sayangnya bukan itu yang terjadi, sehingga suka atau tidak, IHSG cepat atau lambat akan terkoreksi untuk kembali ke track- nya. Kedua, sepanjang paruh pertama 2. Juni 2. 01. 6, pasar sebenarnya masih bergerak secara moderat sesuai dengan perkembangan fundamental ekonomi dalam negeri, dimana IHSG, meski naik dari posisi awal tahun yakni 4,5. Namun masih di bulan Juni, terjadi satu peristiwa penting yang menyebabkan optimisme pasar meningkat signifikan: Kebijakan pemerintah dengan judul Tax Amnesty (TA), yang diharapkan akan: 1. Meningkatkan penerimaan pajak negara untuk membiayai pembangunan infrastruktur, 2. Menarik dana milik konglomerat yang selama ini . Proses pendirian perusahaan dan investasi akan dipermudah untuk mengakomodir dana repatriasi, dan itu pada akhirnya akan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi itu sendiri. Anda bisa baca lagi cerita lengkapnya disini, disini, dan disini. Dan berbeda dengan kebijakan- kebijakan pemerintah yang lainnya, cerita tentang TA ini sangat populer dan ramai dibicarakan oleh banyak kalangan mulai dari konglomerat, pemilik toko kelontong, PNS, karyawan swasta, termasuk tentunya oleh para pelaku pasar saham. Booming TA kemudian menarik minat investor asing untuk belanja saham besar- besaran. Pada pertengahan Agustus 2. Rp. 38 trilyun, atau dengan kata lain mereka belanja saham senilai Rp. Juni, sebelum booming TA, net buy asing cuma Rp. Dan alhasil IHSG lompat kodok dari 4,8. Namun, seperti juga sentimen- sentimen positif lainnya yang ramai dibicarakan pada satu waktu tapi tak berapa lama kemudian dilupakan, maka demikian pula dengan TA, yang pada penghujung Agustus sudah tidak lagi ramai dibicarakan, dan pasar sempat berada dalam kondisi . Nevertheless, beberapa saham terutama dari kelompok second liner yang sebelumnya naik banyak pada Juni – Agustus, memasuki bulan September mereka mulai turun kembali. Namun karena para big caps masih kokoh di posisi mereka masing- masing, maka IHSG juga tetap bertahan di 5,4. Pada titik inilah kita bisa menyimpulkan bahwa kalau nanti pasar . Actually, pada awal September kemarin, yakni ketika sentimen TA sudah meredup sama sekali, IHSG juga sempat drop sejenak ke posisi 5,1. Tapi kemudian keluar berita bahwa perolehan dana tebusan TA, yang sempat jalan ditempat pada awal- awal pelaksanaannya, ternyata sukses naik hingga hampir tembus Rp. TA Tahap I di tanggal 3. September. Alhasil IHSG langsung naik lagi, tapi kembali kenaikannya tertahan di resisten 5,4. Jadi ketika sekarang IHSG drop, maka sebenarnya itu cuma mengulang penurunan yang terjadi pada awal September lalu, dimana seperti halnya pada awal September, pada saat inipun nobody talk about tax amnesty. Ketiga, terkait cerita soal Donald Trump, sekarang ini semua orang punya pendapat dan analisisnya masing- masing tentang bagaimana pengaruh terpilihnya Trump sebagai Presiden AS terhadap perekonomian global termasuk Indonesia, dimana sebagian orang menganggap bahwa pengaruhnya bakal bagus, sebagian lagi menganggap bakal jelek, dan selebihnya malah bingung sama sekali. Kemudian terkait demo Ahok, setelah demo besar tanggal 4 November lalu, juga ada rumor bahwa akan terjadi demo susulan pada tanggal 2. November nanti, dan ketidak pastian situasi politik di dalam negeri terkait Ahok ini mungkin akan terus berlanjut sampai Pilkada DKI itu sendiri digelar pada Februari 2. Nah, kalau pasar saham sudah diselimuti oleh ? Ya turun lebih lanjut, tentu saja, dan itu bukan karena pertumbuhan ekonomi kita drop atau apa, tetapi karena investor akan memilih untuk minggir dulu sampai semuanya clear. Termasuk kurs Rupiah juga bisa anjlok begitu hanya karena para trader forex memilih untuk keluar dulu, jadi bukan karena Fed Rate bakal naik bla bla bla. Ditambah lagi, sekarang sudah akhir tahun, dimana orang- orang (termasuk penulis) lebih sibuk mikirin mau berlibur tahun baruan kemana ketimbang ngurusin saham terus setiap hari. I mean, come on man! We need to rest our eyes and fingers! The Bright Side. Sampai pada poin ketiga diatas, semuanya menunjukkan bahwa IHSG mungkin akan turun lebih lanjut, dan bahwa penurunan 4% kemarin mungkin baru permulaan. Namun demikian tunggu sampai anda membaca poin keempat, kelima, dan keenam. Okay, kita langsung saja. Keempat, selepas booming TA, sebenarnya pasar kembali ketiban booming yang lain, yakni kenaikan harga- harga komoditas, terutama batubara, dimana saham- saham batubara naik kenceng dan mulai menarik perhatian investor sejak Oktober lalu. Sebenarnya ketika IHSG mulai dilanda euforia tax amnesty pada Juni, ketika itu saham- saham batubara juga sudah mulai naik, tapi kenaikannya belum banyak diperhatikan investor. Tapi setelah investor mulai banyak menaruh perhatian ke sektor ini sejak Oktober kemarin, dan sebagian diantaranya juga sudah mulai meraup profit besar, maka artinya optimisme pasar akan tetap terjaga, dan itu akan mencegah IHSG agar tidak turun terlalu dalam (karena IHSG hanya akan benar- benar jeblok jika semua orang berteriak panik dan putus asa, remember that). Kabar baiknya, dampak dari kenaikan harga batubara yang sudah terjadi sejak pertengahan tahun lalu harusnya baru akan kelihatan di laporan keuangan mereka pada akhir tahun ini, dan awal tahun 2. Dalam hal ini penulis jadi ingat dengan tahun 2. KKGI, yang meroket dari 1,7. Intinya, terlepas dari kemungkinan fluktuasi jangka pendek (karena gak mungkin juga suatu saham, entah itu saham batubara atau lainnya, bakal naik terus tiap hari, melainkan pasti ada turunnya), namun yang jelas kita sudah tahu saham apa yang layak diburu pada awal tahun 2. Kelima, kita tahu bahwa sejak tahun 2. Pemerintah sebagai . Nah, agar berbagai aksi korporasi tersebut sukses, maka apa syarat yang mutlak diperlukan? Kondisi pasar yang stabil, tentu saja! Contohnya, kalau pada satu waktu Pemerintah hendak meng- IPO- kan sebuah BUMN, tapi di waktu yang bersamaan IHSG jeblok sampai 4,5. IPO- nya bakal laku nggak? You know the answer. Jadi agar kondisi pasar tetap stabil dan optimisme investor tetap terjaga, maka pemerintah punya kepentingan untuk menjaga agar IHSG, kalaupun nanti turun maka penurunannya tidak akan sampai bikin orang- orang desperate, dan actually gampang saja bagi mereka untuk melakukan itu. Maksud penulis, anda pikir gimana caranya PPRO, SMBR, INAF, hingga TLKM bisa naik sampai setinggi itu, dan dalam waktu yang gak nyampe satu tahun? So, believe me, kalau nanti IHSG drop hingga ke level dimana Pemerintah menganggap bahwa level tersebut sudah terlalu dalam, maka mereka akan langsung take action, entah itu melalui BEI, OJK, atau lainnya, dan seketika itu pula pasar akan dengan cepat pulih. Masih ingat ketika IHSG dilanda panic selling di bulan Agustus 2. Ketika itu Menteri Rini juga langsung instruksi ke BBRI dkk untuk melakukan buy back saham, dan tak lama kemudian di bulan November- nya IHSG naik tajam, dan alhasil IHSG secara keseluruhan tidak turun terlalu dalam sepanjang tahun 2. Dan terakhir, keenam, setelah hampir saja jatuh ke lembah krisis pada tahun 2. Indonesia perlahan tapi pasti mulai pulih, thanks to gencarnya pembangunan infra oleh pemerintah, belum termasuk banyaknya paket kebijakan ekonomi untuk menstimulus sektor swasta (sejauh ini sudah ada 1. Pada tahun 2. 01. Rupiah anjlok sampai hampir tembus Rp. BBM, setelah subsidi BBM dicabut sama sekali), pengangguran 6. Sementara sekarang? Well, pertumbuhan ekonomi terakhir 5. Rupiah stabil di Rp. Sementara faktanya di lapangan, anda mungkin bisa merasakan sendiri kalau jualan apapun pada tahun ini sudah lebih laku dibanding tahun 2. Kalaupun ada perkembangan yang tampak kurang bagus, maka itu adalah meningkatnya rasio utang Pemerintah terhadap PDB, dari 2. Pemerintah memang banyak mengambil utang untuk keperluan infrastruktur, namun tentu juga harus diingat bahwa rasio 2. Sebagai perbandingan, pada tahun 2. IHSG malah naik kenceng. And you know what? Skype was founded in 2003 by Niklas Zennström, from Sweden, and Janus Friis, from Denmark. The Skype software was created by Estonians Ahti Heinla, Priit Kasesalu. Enjoy your new Evernote! To access your notes everywhere, get the Evernote app on all your devices. 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